The Lynx come home Friday at 31-9, the best record in basketball. Their magic number for the No. 1 overall seed is still three, unchanged for three weeks, and a win Friday drops it to two.
Minnesota and Golden State both stopped playing in late August for the World Cup break, so the 31-9 Lynx and 29-11 Valkyries have not gained a step on each other since. Friday ends the idle stretch. Four games apiece remain in a 44-game season, which caps Golden State at 33 wins and keeps Minnesota’s number at three.
New York arrives at 24-16, tied with Washington and Dallas in a three-way jam for playoff seeding and already in the field, which sounds tidier than it is. Their exact seed won’t settle until the final week. The season series is tied 1-1: New York took the July 3 opener 99-86 behind 36 from Breanna Stewart, and Minnesota answered 90-85 at Target Center eight days later.
A late-season measuring stick
Friday is a measuring stick against a team Minnesota could see again in October if the bracket breaks their way. Stewart is still carrying the Liberty at 20.4 a night, but the supporting cast is thinner than it was in the title year. Satou Sabally is out for the season with a head injury (announced Sept. 3), and Sabrina Ionescu’s jumper has gone cold at the worst possible time. A team that once made you account for four scorers now has two on a good night.
What Minnesota brings
Napheesa Collier is back and playing like she never left: nearly 18 points and seven rebounds a night across 12 games since her July 22 debut, shooting as efficiently as ever. Minnesota built the league’s best record largely without her; getting her back for the stretch is the luxury contenders are supposed to have and rarely do. The open question was whether she and Olivia Miles — who has scored 19.7 points a night while running the offense — would fit together. Courtney Williams, the Lynx’s late-game closer, is back from the right foot injury that cost her the Aug. 24 loss to Golden State.
When Collier returned, that fit question was everywhere, ESPN’s women’s hoops account among them:
https://x.com/ESPN_WomenHoop/status/2079955043336470907
That question had no answer in July. It has a 12-game one now: Miles kept the offense humming, and Collier folded back in without demanding the ball. The fit was the only thing left to settle, and it settled quietly.
I keep coming back to the 12 games. A team wins 31 of 40 while its best player watches 28 of them, then gets her back for the playoffs. That is not a team with a problem to solve.
Prediction: Lynx by nine. Two scorers do not beat this roster at full strength.
