The No. 1 overall seed the Lynx spent all summer earning bought them the softest first-round draw on the board, and it happens to be the one opponent whose name still stings. Minnesota (33-11) opens the playoffs Sunday at Target Center against the No. 8 New York Liberty (26-18), the club that beat them for the 2024 title (Yahoo). It is a best-of-three, and the Lynx should end it in two.
That 2024 Game 5 still stings, so let me be clear: New York walked into this reckoning shorthanded. The Liberty limped to the eight seed and then limped through their finale. Breanna Stewart sat it out with left knee soreness; Jonquel Jones rolled her ankle in the third quarter and never returned, both four days before this series (Yahoo).
The matchups that decide it
Start with Napheesa Collier and Breanna Stewart, the two best players in the building whenever both are upright. Collier has been methodical since her midseason return from double-ankle surgery, at 16.8 points and 6.9 rebounds a night (CBS Sports). Stewart’s 20.8 and 8.3 (CBS Sports) are the equalizer New York needs, and a sore knee turns them into a question mark. If Stewart is limited, this matchup, and the series, tilts hard.
Then the point guards. Olivia Miles has played like Rookie of the Year all season — 19.8 points and 6.0 assists — against a Sabrina Ionescu grinding through a rough shooting year at 38.8% from the field (Basketball-Reference). Miles has to be healthy to press that edge, which brings us to the storyline.
Inside, Natasha Howard (14.8 points, a team-high 7.6 boards) and Collier get to attack a frontcourt built around Jonquel Jones, whose 9.1 rebounds anchor everything New York does and whose ankle is now in doubt. Own that glass and the Liberty have no counter.
The storyline: Miles’ calf
Track Olivia Miles’ left calf. She was a late scratch against Indiana in the season’s final week, and her Game 1 status is the one real variable on Minnesota’s side. Cheryl Reeve has no reason to gamble a rookie’s postseason on a game the Lynx are favored to win comfortably, but Miles is the engine, and a healthy Miles turns a tight opener into a rout.
The thing that beats this Liberty team
Do not let New York steal an early lead and hang around on Ionescu threes. Force the offense onto a compromised supporting cast, guard Stewart without fouling, and pound a thin, banged-up frontcourt. Minnesota’s defense went soft over the final week; playoff defense has to arrive on the first possession, not in the fourth quarter.
What to watch
Watch the New York injury report at tip. If Stewart and Jones are both out or clearly limited, this is over before it starts. If both suit up and Ionescu finds her stroke, the Liberty carry enough pedigree to steal one on the road. Either way, Minnesota is deeper, healthier, and the top seed for a reason.
Prediction: Lynx by 14 in Game 1, series in two. The 2024 tape gets buried this week. New York brought a title team’s name and a lottery team’s health.
