The Lynx are at Chase Center on Wednesday night, 9:00 PM Central on USA Network. The tidy version going around, that 29-7 Minnesota clinches the No. 1 overall seed there, isn’t true yet. The magic number is seven. What Wednesday offers instead is a chance to bury the only team within reach: at 25-9, Golden State sits three games back, and nobody else is close.
Golden State is 25-9, winners of six straight after Monday’s 78-70 win over Dallas clinched a second consecutive playoff berth. The Valkyries have also lost all six meetings with the Lynx across two seasons, a run that includes last September’s two-game sweep in the first round.
Wednesday introduces a variable none of those six games had.
Collier has never played Golden State this year
Minnesota won both June meetings without her: 87-84 in the Commissioner’s Cup game at Target Center on June 4, then 81-75 in San Francisco on June 19. Napheesa Collier spent both nights rehabbing the left ankle that cost her three torn ligaments last September, and she did not debut until July 22 against Seattle, where she put up 24 points and 10 rebounds in 22 minutes. Through nine games she is averaging 19.1 points and 7.3 rebounds on 52.4 percent shooting. Valkyries coach Natalie Nakase has two scouting reports on a Lynx team that no longer exists.
What Golden State does well, and doesn’t
The Valkyries are the best defense in the league, allowing 76.7 points per game, and Gabby Williams was the engine Monday with 23 points, seven rebounds and four steals. Veronica Burton added 16. Kiah Stokes returned to the starting lineup after clearing concussion protocol.
https://x.com/kenzofuku/status/2089571990768341185
The other end is the problem. Golden State scores 83.4 per game, 12th of 15 teams, against a Minnesota offense putting up 92.6 and leading the WNBA at 39.4 percent from three.
Minnesota’s depth is the quiet advantage
Olivia Miles is at 19.9 points and 6.1 assists as a rookie. Kayla McBride is shooting 42.3 percent from deep, Natasha Howard is at 15.1 and 7.8 on 58.7 percent, and Courtney Williams is averaging 14.6 and 4.2 while making the game feel unmanageable for whoever guards her. Cheryl Reeve’s late-season adjustment has been sliding Nia Coffey to small forward, which keeps a 39.2 percent three-point shooter who can guard wings on the floor next to Collier. Coffey scored 12 in Saturday’s 92-87 win in Las Vegas.
Rest favors the road team, which is not how this usually goes. Minnesota has not played since Saturday. Golden State played Monday. The injury reports are thin on both sides: Emma Cechova is out for the season with a torn ACL for the Lynx, Iliana Rupert out for the year for the Valkyries.
My cats, Carol and Doug, will be asleep by the fourth quarter, because a 9 PM Central tip is not a cat-friendly product.
These teams do it again Monday at Target Center. Reeve gets the league’s stingiest defense twice in six days before the bracket sets, with Collier available for both, which is the kind of dress rehearsal you cannot schedule on purpose.
Golden State earned its seed and plays the game correctly. It is also about to meet the version of Minnesota it has never had to solve.
Prediction: Lynx by 7, and Nakase spends Monday redrawing everything.
