I have heard a lot of smoke in August from men whose actual job is selling me next spring, so when Tim Connelly went on the Jon Krawczynski Show and started talking about championships, I went hunting for the con. I could not find one. That pisses me off more than a lie would, because it means I have to do the work.

Here is what he said, published Aug. 18:

“Why not us? Every year it’s been a different champion for a long time now… I think we have a real chance and there’s only five or six rooms in the league that really think they have a chance, and we’re one of them.”

Most executive quotes are steam. This one has a number in it, and a number is checkable. So let’s count the rooms out loud instead of taking the word of the guy who signs the trades and contracts.

Room one is San Antonio, and it isn’t close. The Spurs won the West as a No. 2 seed and did it by beating Oklahoma City 111-103 in Game 7 in OKC, with Victor Wembanyama taking conference finals MVP. They lost the Finals in five and then did the least dramatic thing available: extended Wembanyama, re-signed Julian Champagnie and Harrison Barnes, added Tobias Harris. NBA.com’s Aug. 3 West rankings have them holding 94 percent of last season’s minutes. Nobody in this league gets to run it back with a 22-year-old that good.

Room two is Oklahoma City, who won the title in 2025 and lost the aforementioned Game 7 at home in 2026. By NBA.com’s accounting, that defense allowed 8.3 fewer points per 100 possessions than league average, the second-best mark in thirty years. Then the second apron came for them and they shipped out Lu Dort, Isaiah Joe and Aaron Wiggins for money reasons, which is the part of this sport that actually deserves your anger. A championship roster got smaller because the tax math said so.

Room three is New York, which is where I have to say the words out loud: the Knicks are the defending champions. Jalen Brunson dropped 45 in the clinching Game 5 on the road to claim the franchise’s first title since 1973, took Finals MVP, and the front office essentially left it alone. The exception being Andre Drummond in, Mitchell Robinson out.

Room four is Philadelphia, because LeBron James signed a two-year, $8 million deal to play, at 41, next to Joel Embiid, Tyrese Maxey, and Jaylen Brown. The market moved Philly from +2700 to around +900 on that news alone. Health is the entire bet, and with this much talent, it’s a bet worth making.

Room five is Miami. The Heat got Giannis Antetokounmpo and Bobby Portis on July 6 for Tyler Herro, Jaime Jaquez Jr., Kel’el Ware, Kasparas Jakučionis, the No. 13 pick, first-rounders in 2031 and 2033 and a 2030 swap. Bam Adebayo stayed. That is a two-man team with a hollowed-out middle, and two men that good still count.

Denver had the league’s best offense last season at 121.2 per 100 and I still left them out, because they lost Tim Hardaway Jr. and Jonas Valančiūnas off a bench that was already thin. Boston sat at +1400 on FanDuel as of Aug. 13 with Jayson Tatum coming back off an Achilles and Jaylen Brown gone to Philadelphia. Both are real teams. Neither is a room where they think they win four series.

Which brings me to the sixth chair, and I am going to sit in it honestly.

Minnesota went 49-33 and finished sixth in the West in 2025-26, beat Denver in the first round, and got put out 139-109 in Game 6 by San Antonio on May 15. Anthony Edwards played 61 games at 28.8 points on 39.9 percent from three. Donte DiVincenzo, who started all 82, tore his right Achilles in Game 4 against Denver and will miss most or all of this coming season. Connelly’s own framing was matchups and injuries. Minnesota’s evidence for that argument is unusually good.

Then came the four-team deal: LaMelo Ball, Josh Green and Isaiah Evans in, Naz Reid and Julius Randle out, plus the No. 28 pick, an unprotected 2033 first, swaps in 2028, 2029 and 2030, and three seconds. Ball averaged 20.1 points and 7.1 assists in 72 games last season, his healthiest year since 2021-22. Mike Conley went to Boston. Trey Lyles is the man currently standing where Naz Reid used to stand.

So the holes are not a mystery. Rudy Gobert turned 34 in June and is in year 14. The backup center job is unfunded. The best perimeter defender behind Jaden McDaniels is rehabbing an Achilles. And the guy hired to make Edwards’ life easier has never won a playoff series.

I put Minnesota sixth of six, and sixth is not nothing. It’s the last chair in a room most franchises never get invited to. Ant named the two teams he intends to go through and got a week of headlines for it. Connelly said the quieter, scarier version: we spent 2033 on this. There is no second bet behind it. This is the window, and it’s open right now, and Connelly is the one who has to sit in the chair when somebody asks how it closed.

Count the rooms. We’re in one. Sixth is still in the damn room.